Fred Barnes - The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,”
is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to
47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater
advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent.
While
Obama can close the gap with a strong voter turnout effort, “reports
from the field would indicate that not to be the case, and Mitt Romney
may well be heading to a decisive victory,” says pollster Ed Goeas.
Should Romney win by 5 percentage points, it would
increase Republican chances of gaining control of the Senate. His
coattails would help elect GOP Senate candidates in Virginia, Wisconsin,
Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida. “Republicans are now certain to hold
the House,” Goeas said, “regardless of how the presidential race turns
out.”
The poll’s election model takes into account
variables including voter intensity, age, and education, and voters who
are certain in their vote. The race “remains very close in the
surface,” Goeas said, “but the political environment and the composition
of the likely electorate favor Governor Romney.”
The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is
close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads
Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s
composition on November 6.
The Battleground Poll is conducted by Goeas of the
Tarrance Group and Celinda Lake of Lake Research Partners. Goeas is a
Republican, Lake a Democrat. The survey is affiliated with Politico and George Washington University.
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