Friday, October 19, 2012

"Obama October Surprise" A Nuclear Deal With Iran

On October 6th,  we headlined  a report from Reza Kahlili, ex-CIA agent about secret negotiations in Doha, Qatar between a  US delegation  and a senior representative of the Islamic regime in Tehran, Ali Akbar Velayati, the former Iranian Foreign Minister and current close adviser to the Supreme Leader on international affairs.  The headline we used was, “Will there be an Obama October Surprise on Iran’s Nuclear Enrichment?”  

Kahlili has released a new report   today , based on reliable sources  in Iran,  that a tentative deal has been reached and who the mysterious US woman was who had long term connections inside the Islamic Republic, Valarie Jarrett, a close advisor to President Obama.  Kahlili notes in this latest World Net Daily report today, “Obama cuts deal with Iran over nukes” the outline of the proposed deal and alleged timing;

Iranian and U.S. negotiators have reached an agreement that calls for Iran to halt part of its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of many of the U.S. sanctions against the Islamic regime, according to a highly placed source.

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, expects a letter from President Obama in a few days guaranteeing the details of the agreement, arrived at recently during secret negotiations in Doha, Qatar.

The source, who remains anonymous for security reasons and is highly placed in Iran’s regime, said that once Khamenei receives Obama’s guarantees, he will authorize an announcement by Iran on a solution to the nuclear crisis before the U.S. presidential elections.

The agreement calls for Iran to announce a temporary halt to partial uranium enrichment after which the U.S. will remove many of its sanctions, including those on the Iranian central bank, no later than by the Iranian New Year in March. Iran is in the throes of massive inflation and citizen unrest because of the sanctions.

French intelligence verified today that Yukiya Amano, the current director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, has been given the go-ahead by the U.S. to be ready to travel to Iran and announce the agreement, according to Hamid Reza Zakeri, a former intelligence officer in the regime who has defected to Europe.

The source in Tehran said Khamenei has made it clear that unless he receives Obama’s written guarantees, he will not begin the process, which would dramatically boost Obama’s re-election chances. If the guarantees are not given, Khamenei has warned, Iran will speed up its nuclear program.

The veil has also been lifted on the mysterious woman intermediary on behalf of President Obama in the secret Doha negotiations and her family ties to Velayati.

In the Qatar meeting, according to the Iranian source, the American woman delegate, who has had several meetings with Velayati during the past several years, jokingly told Velayati that she will be the next secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development in a second Obama administration and that it would be wise for Iranians to invest in U.S. real estate.
In the past five months, four meetings were held in the U.S. with the Islamic regime’s surrogates to hash out what was to be discussed at the Doha meeting. The source identified Valerie Jarrett, a senior Obama adviser, as the head of the U.S. effort to engage Iran. Also identified was Cyrus Amir Mokri, assistant secretary of the Treasury Department for financial institutions, as another member advising the president on the issue.

Jarrett’s family has known the Velayati family since their stay in Iran in the 1950s, the source added. Jarrett’s father worked at the Namazi hospital in Shiraz, owned by an Iranian family that has been influential with the regime after the Islamic Revolution.

The WND article indicated that both the State Department and the White House when approached declined to comment on these reports.

This cynical back channel play by the Obama Administration appeasing the Mullahs  at a time when they desperate to head off another economic collapse when hard currency reserves run out in the near future.  That, and the continuing downward spiral of the Iranian rial could stoke possible riots of greater magnitude than the recent bazaar protest.

However, the WND report notes what opposition in Iran has said about these prospects:

Many within the Iranian opposition believe that if the West continues to pressure the Islamic regime and supports the aspirations of the majority of the Iranian people who resent the regime and its ideology, the regime will face a nationwide uprising and will collapse from within, changing the geopolitics of not only the region but the world.

However, if the regime is provided a lifeline for whatever reason, not only will it get the bomb but it will take Iranians and the world hostage for decades to come, they believe.

If this Obama October surprise is confirmed, will it surface in time to make a difference in a close race with Romney’s poll figures currently surpassing those of the President?  The timing of this Obama deal with Iran is exquisite. It would upstage the upcoming final Presidential debate on Foreign Policy, deflecting attention from what has been called Benghazigate by the media, the unraveling of the facts about the jihadist attack on the consulate and killing of four Americans including the US Ambassador on what is deemed US territory.  Moreover, it would push to the side Israeli PM demands for red lines on Iran’s uranium enrichment program. Netanyahu has called for early elections in February 2013 to bolster Israeli public support for a possible military action against Iran’s nuclear facilities.  It would as we pointed out in our early article on this possible Obama October surprise bolster Jewish votes in key battleground states for his re-election. It would further consternate EU implement of tougher sanctions that started this week.
In our earlier October surprise article we commented:

This  October surprise is a classic Persian chess gambit to confuse the real intentions of the Supreme Leader and the Revolutionary Guards in their inexorable progress towards achieving a nuclear weapons capability.

Remember  Churchill’s famous quote about appeasers: “An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile, hoping it will eat him last”

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