Thursday, August 23, 2012

Bickers-Barry Electorial College Model Predicts Big Romeny-Ryan Win

Johns Hayward - Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry, of the University of Colorado, have a system for predicting the Electoral College outcomes of presidential races.  Their model has accurately forecast the winner of every presidential race since 1980.  According to an article published by UC-Boulder, they even got the Perot-flavored election of 1992, and the Bush-Gore photo finish in 2000, right.
This year, the Bickers-Berry model shows Mitt Romney winning with 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218, with a 20-vote margin of error.  A popular vote margin of 53-47 percent in Romney’s favor is predicted.
The Bickers-Berry model draws upon a wide range of state and national economic data, rather than collating public opinion polls.  It anticipates little lasting effect from factors such as the location of the party conventions, the vice-president’s home state, the party affiliation of state governors, or – according to Bickers – “gaffes, political commercials, or day-to-day campaign tactics.”  He finds the focus of voters upon big issues “heartening for our democracy.”
The Associated Press notes that “the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50.”  There appear to be quite a few states fitting that definition at the moment.  The Bickers-Berry model has Obama losing almost every swing state, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Interestingly, the model predicts different partisan effects for two key economic factors: “Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.”  That’s obviously not good news for President Obama, who has made double-digit unemployment a permanent feature of the American landscape.
The forecast that has Romney winning with 320 electoral votes is based on five-month-old economic data, with an update planned for September.  There are reports today that jobless claims are starting to rise again.  Maybe Romney will do even better, when even more dismal Obama economic data is plugged into the Bickers-Berry model.
On the other hand, the professors note that it’s hard to predict if the public will judge the economy in “absolute” or “relative” terms – in other words, will they consider the totality of the Obama record, or will they accept a possible uptick in a few key indicators during October as encouraging signs that the President is turning around?

9 comments:

  1. obama doesnt break 200 actually. but they are close

    ReplyDelete
  2. Very good post. I am experiencing some of these issues as well.
    .
    My site ... vakantiehuisje

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is a topic which is close to my heart.

    .. Best wishes! Exactly where are your contact details though?



    Feel free to visit my weblog germany

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hey there just wanted to give you a quick heads up. The text in your
    content seem to be running off the screen in Opera. I'm not sure if this is a format issue or something to do with browser compatibility but I thought I'd post to let you know.
    The layout look great though! Hope you get the issue resolved soon.
    Kudos

    My website ... vacature arnhem

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hello, I think your site might be having browser compatibility issues.

    When I look at your website in Firefox, it looks fine but when opening in Internet Explorer, it has
    some overlapping. I just wanted to give you a quick heads up!
    Other then that, amazing blog!

    Also visit my homepage :: vakantiehuis frankrijk

    ReplyDelete
  6. Heya i'm for the first time here. I came across this board and I find It truly useful & it helped me out a lot. I hope to give something back and help others like you helped me.

    my blog: luxe vakantiehuis ()

    ReplyDelete
  7. It's going to be end of mine day, however before ending I am reading this wonderful piece of writing to increase my know-how.

    Look at my webpage; particuliere vakantiehuizen [particulierevakantiehuizen.wordpress.com]

    ReplyDelete
  8. Hi, I would like to subscribe for this website to get most recent updates,
    therefore where can i do it please assist.

    my weblog: vakantiehuisje frankrijk

    ReplyDelete
  9. Excellent blog here! Also your website loads up fast!
    What host are you using? Can I get your affiliate link to your host?
    I wish my website loaded up as fast as yours lol

    Also visit my homepage: vakantiewoningen frankrijk

    ReplyDelete