Tuesday, November 2, 2010

House-Senate Mid-Term Elections Porjections " Republican Win House 49 - Senate 7"

After months of partisan wrangling, it is finally time for the voters to deliver their decision on the 2010 mid-term elections in the Congress, as Republicans seem to have the edge today.

Republicans need to gain a net of 39 seats to charge of the House and 10 seats to take over the Senate. Political experts think the first is almost a given, while the latter is still a longshot.

It isn't difficult to get to 39 seats for a GOP takeover, as most political experts are expecting the Republicans to be back in charge of the House.

The big question is how many seats will the GOP win.

One Republican lawmaker told me yesterday that his guess is 55 seats - that's one more than what Republicans won in 1994.

Others though see the chance for a much larger haul - 60, 70, even 80 seats or more. If the "wave" is that high, then a number of unsuspecting Democrats will likely get swept out tonight, as happened in 2006 to then-Rep. Jim Leach (R-IA), even though Democrats didn't even target him.

"You're going to see somebody like that fall this time," says Henry Olsen, an elections expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

"On my list, I have what I call 'Super Upset Specials'," as Olsen and many others around here try to figure out who might be at risk on a night like this.

I should resist making any predictions like that, but I will say that I wonder if the GOP advantage in the state of Michigan could mean that a longtime Democratic lawmaker will go down to defeat.

Where are Democrats at risk of losing seats? I don't mean to be flip - but 'just about anywhere' is the answer, from New England to Blue Dogs in the South, to the Midwest and West.

As of today, Republicans have no seats in New England in the U.S. House. They have a chance to change that in Maine, Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut.

Republicans have only two of the 29 seats in the New York delegation. They have a chance to increase that dramatically.

In key states like Pennsylvania and Ohio, the losses could approach a half dozen seats in each state if the wave is big enough for the GOP.

Virginia could see at least three Democrats go down. Meanwhile, Blue Dog Democrats are at risk in Virginia, North & South Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee and Mississippi.

In Florida, Republicans think they can win four seats from the Democrats.

Texas could deliver as many as two to four seats for the GOP.

Indiana has three seats at risk, three or four more in Illinois, several in Michigan and Wisconsin could go to the GOP. Iowa has some GOP longshots.

Missouri has two seats that might shift, Arkansas has two or three, depending on the size of the Republican gains. Another one could go in Louisiana.

All three freshman Democrats in New Mexico are at risk, as are maybe four or five Democrats in Arizona. It probably didn't help to have arguments yesterday on the Arizona immigration law, a reminder for voters one day before the elections.

Democrats could lose the only House seat in both of the Dakotas, one in Kansas, three or four in Colorado, maybe one in Utah, another in Nevada and one in Idaho.

The Pacific Coast isn't immune either, as maybe three Democrats are at risk in California, another one or two in Oregon and a couple of seats in Washington State.

What about the GOP? Don't they have some seats at risk? Oh yeah, four or five tops - in Delaware, Louisiana, Hawaii, Illinois and south Florida. You can see how one-sided this election looks at this point.

So will the GOP win big? We'll see what the voters decide.

As for my election coverage tonight, I will be on with live reports starting through the evening, and then at 11pm EDT, I will be hosting several hours of election coverage, focusing on the race for Congress. Please check back on my blog all night, as I will be posting comments as the results unfold.

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