Gov. Mitt Romney 21-Point Lead In South Carolina

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has opened a wide lead over his rivals in the South Carolina primary election race, trouncing Newt Gingrich and gaining momentum in his march toward the party's nomination, a Reuters/Ipsos poll shows.

Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, could all but quash his rivals' presidential aspirations with a victory in South Carolina on January 21 after winning the first state-by-state nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Voters in South Carolina - who have favored Republicans in nine of the last 10 presidential elections - appear to have shrugged off attacks on Romney by rivals who accuse him of killing jobs as a private equity executive for Bain Capital in the 1990s.

The poll showed 37 percent of South Carolina Republican voters back Romney. Congressman Ron Paul and former Senator Rick Santorum tied for second place with 16 percent support.

Gingrich, a former speaker of the House of Representatives, has fallen far back after holding a strong lead in South Carolina in December. He was in fourth place at 12 percent in the Reuters/Ipsos poll.
"In primary races things can change quickly but it does look like Romney is in position to win South Carolina, and if he wins ... that's sort of the end of the road for most of his challengers," Ipsos pollster Chris Jackson said.
MITT VS NEWT FEUD
Romney is clearly winning a feud with Gingrich that began in December before the Iowa caucuses and has become the most bitter fight in the selection of a Republican challenger to Democratic President Barack Obama in November's general election.
In a question asked of Republicans and Democrats, the poll found South Carolina voters would favor Romney over Obama by 46 percent to 40 percent.
Asked who they would choose if the nomination contest were solely between Romney and Gingrich, 62 percent of Republicans picked Romney and 30 percent went for Gingrich.

Senior Republican figures and business executives have berated Gingrich for painting multi-millionaire Romney as a ruthless corporate raider. Many Republican voters are also turned off by the attacks, highlighted in a video documentary produced by a funding group that backs Gingrich.

"I think those attacks are misguided. The process of any economy has long been one of creative destruction. Some things grow and some things disappear," said Steve Matthews, a lawyer from Columbia, South Carolina, who plans to vote for Romney.
Romney argues that many more jobs were created by Bain than were lost in his time there.
Santorum, who surged into second place in the Iowa caucuses before fading in New Hampshire, got a boost on Saturday when Christian conservative leaders meeting in Texas endorsed him.
After Gingrich, Texas Governor Rick Perry placed next in the Reuters/Ipsos poll with 6 percent support. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, who was third in the New Hampshire primary, came in the lowest in the South Carolina poll with 3 percent support.

"Even if Romney loses South Carolina by a point or two, he's got the organization, he's got the financial backing to do the long battle of attrition that other challengers really don't," said Jackson of Ipsos.

Romney's campaign announced this week it raised $24 million in the last three months of 2011, while Paul raised $13 million and Gingrich raised $9 million. Obama is way ahead of the Republicans in fundraising.

The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online from January 10-13 with a sample of 995 South Carolina registered voters. It included 398 Republicans and 380 Democrats.

Statistical margins of error are not applicable to online surveys but this poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 5 percentage points for Republicans and 3.4 percentage points for all voters.

CBS Poll: Ron Paul Tie Obama

Steven Shepard - Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, run neck-and-neck with President Obama in a general-election matchup, according to a new CBS News poll released late on Monday that shows the two front-runners in Tuesday's New Hampshire GOP primary running stronger against the president than their fellow Republicans. Romney posts a two-point lead over Obama, 47 percent to 45 percent, within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points. He leads Obama, 45 percent to 39 percent, among independent voters.

From National Journal:

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Obama's lead over Paul is just one point, 46 percent to 45 percent, as Paul leads among independents by 7 points.
(OOPS: Apparent Google Glitch Shows New Hampshire Primary Results)
The president posts more significant leads over the other GOP candidates, but against each he is below the critical 50-percent threshold: He leads former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 49 percent to 41 percent; former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, 48 percent to 41 percent; Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 49 percent to 42 percent; and former Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., 47 percent to 43 percent.
Among all adults, just 45 percent of Americans approve of the job Obama is doing as president, slightly worse than the 47-percent approval rating he posted last month. Among independents, 38 percent approve of Obama's job performance, while 49 percent disapprove.
(CAMPAIGN 2012: Poll: Romney, Paul Tie Obama)
Results released earlier Monday among Republicans who said they intend to vote in their state's presidential nominating contest showed Romney running slightly ahead of the rest of the field, but nearly a third of Republicans are undecided or seeking a candidate not currently in the race.
The CBS News poll was conducted Jan. 4-8, surveying 1,413 adults, for a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. The poll includes a subsample of 1.247 registered voters.

PPP: Romney Leads in South Carolina

Mitt Romney's taken a modest lead in South Carolina. He's at 30% there to 23% for Newt Gingrich and 19% for Rick Santorum. None of the other candidates hit double digits- Ron Paul at 9%, Rick Perry at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 1% round out the field.
Romney's benefiting from very strong personal favorability numbers in the state- 60% of voters see him favorably to only 29% with a negative opinion, numbers that far outstrip anything he ever posted in our Iowa polling. And he also has the most committed support out of the leading contenders. 67% of his supporters say they'll definitely vote for him, compared to only 59% of Gingrich and 44% of Santorum's voters who say that. Among 'solidly committed' voters Romney's lead expands to double digits at 37% to 26% for Gingrich and 15% for Santorum.
Gingrich may be in second place right now but the candidate who would have the best chance of beating Romney in South Carolina is Santorum. He edges out Romney as the candidate with the best favorability rating at 63/21. We tested hypothetical head to head match ups between Romney and the other leading Republican candidates in the instance that were some drop outs before the primary. Romney defeats Gingrich handily in such a match, 49-35.  But Santorum runs only slightly behind Romney at 45-40.
There are two things that taken together might make it possible for Santorum to upset Romney in South Carolina. The first is both Gingrich and Perry dropping out.  Gingrich's voters prefer Santorum over Romney 52-37 and Perry's do by a 54-41 margin.  Either of them dropping out would give Santorum a big boost.
The other thing that would give Santorum the potential for an upset is a Jim DeMint endorsement. 31% of voters say his nod would make them more likely to vote for a candidate.  That compares to 15% for Lindsey Graham, 14% for Nikki Haley, 13% for Mark Sanford, and 11% for John McCain. There's no doubt who has the greatest potential to be a king maker in the Palmetto State.

Other notes from our South Carolina poll:
-Although Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary if they want to, very few plan to do so. Only 18% of the likely electorate is non-GOP, less than it was in Iowa. And those folks aren't having much of an impact on the race. Romney leads Gingrich by 7 and Santorum by 11 with Republican voters only, the same margin he has with the entire primary electorate.
-Romney's religion really doesn't look to be an issue for him. Only 18% of primary voters say they're uncomfortable with the thought of a Mormon President. Beyond that Romney is doing fine with Evangelicals, posting a 53/34 favorability rating with them and tying Gingrich at 25% for the lead with them while Santorum's just behind at 22%.
-Ron Paul's ability to be a serious factor in the Republican race probably ended after he failed to win Iowa. South Carolina Republicans hate him, giving him a 33/54 favorability rating.  That's pretty consistent with what we've seen for Paul among GOP voters most places. It seems possible that if Romney does indeed sweep New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida that it may just end up being him and Paul in the remaining contests. In a head to head Romney leads Paul 67-23...Paul's long term ability to compete with Romney is pretty limited.
-When PPP last polled South Carolina Perry was at 36%. Now he's at 5%.  Republican voters in the state don't even like him anymore. His favorability is under water with 42% expressing a favorable opinion of him to 43% with a negative one. A lot of folks have suggested to us that Perry can make a comeback in South Carolina because Santorum did in Iowa. Here's the difference though: even when Iowa Republicans weren't saying they would vote for Santorum, they still said they liked him. Two weeks out his favorability was 52/32, suggesting the possibility for people to shift to him. But South Carolina Republicans don't even like Perry.
-Nikki Haley and John McCain's endorsements are going to get a ton of credit if Romney wins in South Carolina...probably a lot more credit than they deserve.  11% say a McCain endorsement would make them more likely to vote for someone, but 30% say less likely.  14% say a Haley endorsement would make them more likely to vote for someone, but 25% say less likely. Their timing was good though and they'll get labeled as power brokers if Romney wins regardless of what the reality might be.
-Finally it's important to note how truly up in the air the South Carolina race is. 45% of voters are either undecided or open to changing their minds in the next two weeks. And when we asked folks who they thought had run the strongest campaign in the state 49% said they weren't sure, speaking to the fact that the campaign there really hasn't started yet. Romney's in the lead for now but a Gingrich or more likely Santorum surge certainly seems within the realm of possibility.