Friday, August 24, 2012

DNC Is Quickly Becoming A Giant Abortion Rally

Kate Hicks - If an alien who knew nothing about American politics were to look at the line-up at the Democrat National Convention, he wouldn’t be blamed for assuming that abortion was the single most important issue to the American electorate. In the wake of Akin-gate, the DNC is trying to capitalize on the imaginary “war on women” that the Republican party is supposedly waging, and their party convention schedule reflects as much.
Democrats said that they will feature Cecile Richards, president of the Planned Parent Action Fund, Nancy Keenan, president of the NARAL Pro-Choice America and Sandra Fluke, the Georgetown University student whose plea for federal birth control funding drew the ire--and a subsequent apology--from Rush Limbaugh.
What's more, the Democrats are expanding their list of women ready to assail the GOP on women's issue, adding Maryland Sen. Barbara Mikulski and actress Eva Longoria to the list that already includes Sen. John Kerry and Massachusetts Senate candidate Elizabeth Warren.
Democrats led by party chair Debbie Wasserman Schultz believe that the Akin controversy--and his refusal to leave the Missouri Senate race--has revived their chances of winning a majority of women in the presidential race, key to re-electing President Obama. On Wednesday, for example, the party turned their homepage over to the affair with the headline: "The GOP is dangerously wrong for women." And with a devilish move, they included pictures of Mitt Romney, running mate Paul Ryan and Akin.
"Romney, Ryan, Akin and the GOP want to take women back to the dark ages," the Democrats add.
Quite, I'm sure.
The “abortion-palooza,” as my colleague Ed Morrissey dubbed it, certainly appeals to a certain kind of woman – the Sandra Flukes of the world – but is it enough to win with women in November?
The best answer appears to be…eh. It’s clearly a distraction from the actual issues this election is supposed to be about – most specifically, the economy. And polls indicate that it’s not something really on the minds of the American electorate – it doesn’t even register in Gallup’s poll of voter concerns.
But it’s a distraction that can work, and it’s up to the Romney campaign to shift the focus back to issues of more immediate consequence. See, there’s a voting bloc called “Walmart Moms,” suburban women with children 18 years of age or under, who shop at Walmart at least once a week. They’re a swing bloc, whose issues aren’t totally aligned with either party, but they do tend to care about the “women’s issues” that liberals push. They look like this:
Kathleen Sweeney, 62 years old, director of religious education at a church in Mount Sinai, N.Y., supported Mr. Obama in 2008 but is leaning to Mr. Romney now. "I'm hoping Romney will be more effective in getting us out of the economic doldrums we're in," she said. "That's the weak spot of the Obama administration. The economy's still in bad shape."
Chris Hilton, 58, a real-estate-company owner from East Peoria, Ill., is also disappointed that the economy and the housing market haven't improved as much as she had hoped. Still, she is leaning toward voting for Mr. Obama because of his positions on the health law, women's pay and because Mr. Romney has said he would cut federal funding to Planned Parenthood.
"I'm afraid he might take away some of the rights that we fought for so long for," Ms. Hilton said of the GOP candidate. She voted for Mr. Bush in 2004 and Mr. Obama in 2008.
They tend to skew liberal on social issues, but waver between the parties on fiscal issues – and that’s what they care about. These women are thinking about the tax rate, and how it affects their paychecks; caring for elderly parents; getting kids off to college. Thus, it’s a matter of elucidating the ways women and their families will benefit from the economic policies a Romney/Ryan administration would pursue.
Alex Bratty, a Republican pollster with Public Opinion Strategies, is a leading expert on these “Walmart Moms,” and she and her Democrat polling partner Margie Omero have zeroed in on the attitudes these women have toward both candidates:
In a memo based on six recent focus groups, five of them in battleground states, Bratty and Omero describe Walmart moms as frustrated with the tone of the campaign and with both candidates – "overwhelmed by negative ads they cannot trust" and very much interested in the more unfiltered settings offered by the coming conventions and debates.
"They do not feel like either candidate is really connecting with them on the issues that matter most: the economy, education and health care."
Romney gets first crack with his convention. And reading through the focus group reports suggests a steep hill. "On the one hand they see his successful business record and say that is the kind of president the country needs right now – that his success is the American Dream" Bratty and Omero wrote. "On the other hand, they worry about how little they know about him."
Common descriptions of Romney from the focus groups: Not personable. Polished. Slick. Out of touch.
The president, however, can skip the hand stands.
Unhappy. Disappointed. Dissatisfied. Broken promises. Overwhelmed. Those were some of the labels attached to the Democratic incumbent during the discussions.
"There is not a lot of confidence that another four years will result in things getting better," is one damning line from the Bratty-Omero memo.
In other words, Romney’s greatest challenge is likeability – these women might be willing to accept the economic plans he’s laid out, given their disappointment with the president, but they’re not sure they can really trust him. Once again, however, this explains the Democrats’ strategy to highlight the issue of abortion. The economy isn’t an issue where these women feel particularly confident in his abilities – and in fact, the only thing he really has going for him are female “healthcare” initiatives like contraception and abortion.
The Akin controversy has given Democrats an opportunity to pander to women about issues like abortion, which this swing bloc does care about, but which isn’t their primary concern and, in all honesty, is unlikely to be at the forefront of any upcoming policy debates. It’s simply a convenient way for Obama and company to avoid a discussion about a losing issue for them.
It’s up to Romney, then, to remind these women that there are more immediate and pressing concerns, like our nation’s solvency. If he can shift the focus – and assure these women that his policies will help them – then he ought to pick up a few extra female votes in the fall.

U.S. Incomes Fall Under President Obama

Jeff Kearns - American incomes declined more in the three-year expansion that started in June 2009 than during the longest recession since the Great Depression, according an analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data by Sentier Research LLC.
Median household income fell 4.8 percent on an inflation- adjusted basis since the recession ended in June 2009, more than the 2.6 percent drop during the 18-month contraction, the research firm’s Gordon Green and John Coder wrote in a report today. Household income is 7.2 percent below the December 2007 level, the former Census Bureau economic statisticians wrote.
“Almost every group is worse off than it was three years ago, and some groups had very large declines in income,” Green, who previously directed work on the Census Bureau’s income and poverty statistics program, said in a phone interview today. “We’re in an unprecedented period of economic stagnation.”
While gains in hourly earnings and average hours worked per week may have had “a minor mitigating effect” on income declines, they couldn’t offset a jobless rate that hasn’t fallen below 8 percent since February 2009 and a record duration of unemployment, according to the Annapolis, Maryland-based firm.
The average duration of unemployment increased to a record 41 weeks in November and remains at 39 weeks, Labor Department data show. Almost 5.2 million Americans have been out of work for at least six months.

Earnings Drop

Real median annual household income fell to $53,508 from $54,916 during the 18-month recession from December 2007 to June 2009, according to the firm’s study of income data for the 36- month period ended in June 2012. Incomes kept falling during the 36-month period since then, dropping to $50,964 in June 2012.
Men living alone experienced the worst drop in income, losing 9.4 percent, while married couples fared best with a 3.6 percent decline, the report shows. Incomes are before tax and adjusted for changes in consumer prices and expressed in constant June 2012 dollars.
“Median annual household income declined significantly for both family and non-family households,” Green and Coder wrote. “Real median annual household income declined more significantly for younger households.”
Incomes for all age groups below 65 years fell, while older Americans saw increases. Incomes for those 55 to 64 fell the most, losing 9.7 percent, followed by the 8.9 percent decline for 25- to 34-year-olds. The two gains were among those 65 to 75, whose incomes rose 6.5 percent, and those 75 and up who experienced an increase of 2.8 percent.
By education, Americans with some college lost the most, with incomes falling 9.3 percent, followed by an 8.6 percent slump for those with associate degrees, the report said. Those without high school degrees lost the least, falling 5.3 percent.
Green is a former chief of the governments division at the Census Bureau, the report said. Coder was chief of the Income Statistics Branch at the bureau, where he oversaw collection and processing of income data and developed new survey methods.

Obama Budget Will Add $4 Trillion To Debt In Next Four Years

Daniel Harper - By the end of this year, the federal debt is expected to be $16.2 trillion, which is $6.2 trillion more than when President Obama first came into office four years ago. Moreover, new analysis by the Republican side of the Senate Budget Committee finds that, over the next 4 years, if Barack Obama remains president and his budget is enacted, $4.4 trillion will be added to the federal debt.
Here's a chart illustrating the projected debt over the next four years:

As the chart notes, staying on the same path will mean that debt is expected to hit $17.5 trillion in 2013, $18.5 trillion in 2014, $19.4 trillion in 2015, and $20.3 trillion in 2016.
The last full year of Obama's presidency, if he is reelected, will be 2016.
"Federal debt will increase to $25.4 trillion by the end of 2022, an increase of $10.6 trillion (72 percent) under the president’s budget policies," the Senate Budget Committee notes.
It's been 1,212 since Senate Democrats brought a budget to the Senate floor.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Bickers-Barry Electorial College Model Predicts Big Romeny-Ryan Win

Johns Hayward - Professors Ken Bickers and Michael Berry, of the University of Colorado, have a system for predicting the Electoral College outcomes of presidential races.  Their model has accurately forecast the winner of every presidential race since 1980.  According to an article published by UC-Boulder, they even got the Perot-flavored election of 1992, and the Bush-Gore photo finish in 2000, right.
This year, the Bickers-Berry model shows Mitt Romney winning with 320 electoral votes to Obama’s 218, with a 20-vote margin of error.  A popular vote margin of 53-47 percent in Romney’s favor is predicted.
The Bickers-Berry model draws upon a wide range of state and national economic data, rather than collating public opinion polls.  It anticipates little lasting effect from factors such as the location of the party conventions, the vice-president’s home state, the party affiliation of state governors, or – according to Bickers – “gaffes, political commercials, or day-to-day campaign tactics.”  He finds the focus of voters upon big issues “heartening for our democracy.”
The Associated Press notes that “the model does not account for sudden changes in the economy or unexpected developments in states split 50-50.”  There appear to be quite a few states fitting that definition at the moment.  The Bickers-Berry model has Obama losing almost every swing state, including Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin, and Florida.
Interestingly, the model predicts different partisan effects for two key economic factors: “Voters hold Democrats more responsible for unemployment rates while Republicans are held more responsible for per capita income.”  That’s obviously not good news for President Obama, who has made double-digit unemployment a permanent feature of the American landscape.
The forecast that has Romney winning with 320 electoral votes is based on five-month-old economic data, with an update planned for September.  There are reports today that jobless claims are starting to rise again.  Maybe Romney will do even better, when even more dismal Obama economic data is plugged into the Bickers-Berry model.
On the other hand, the professors note that it’s hard to predict if the public will judge the economy in “absolute” or “relative” terms – in other words, will they consider the totality of the Obama record, or will they accept a possible uptick in a few key indicators during October as encouraging signs that the President is turning around?

Monday, August 20, 2012

Gas Prices Set August Record


Sandy Shore - You may pay more than ever for a late-summer drive.
U.S. drivers paid an average of $3.72 per gallon on Monday. That's the highest price ever on this date, according to auto club AAA, a shade above the $3.717 average on Aug. 20, 2008. A year ago, the average was $3.578.
More daily records are likely over the next few weeks. The national average could increase to $3.75 per gallon by Labor Day, said Tom Kloza, chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service. By comparison, gas prices stayed below $3.70 in late August and early September in both 2008 and 2011.
Kloza and other analysts expect prices to start dropping after Labor Day, so drivers shouldn't have to worry about a return to the April high of $3.94 per gallon, barring a hurricane or other unforeseen event.
Retail gasoline prices have risen nearly 12 percent since July 1. because of higher oil prices, and problems with refineries and pipelines that created temporary supply shortages in some regions. An increase in the price of ethanol, which is blended into gasoline, also contributed to the rise in pump prices.
Higher gas prices aren't what the sluggish economy needs, since any extra money that goes to fill gas tanks doesn't get spent at movie theaters or restaurants.
The pace of the increases has slowed considerably, however. Gas rose 19 cents in the two weeks ended Wednesday. It's up just 1 penny in the five days since. Gas costs about 26 cents more than a month ago and 14 cents more than a year ago, according to AAA, OPIS and Wright Express.
Across the U.S., prices range from a low of $3.43 per gallon in South Carolina to $4.32 in Hawaii. Arizona, Mississippi and New Mexico also have average prices below $3.50 per gallon, while California and Illinois are up above the $4 mark.
A few drivers are catching a break. Kloza said gas prices are lower than this date in 2011 in four states - Montana, Wyoming, Utah and Idaho.
The price at the pump in the U.S. fell more than 60 cents per gallon during the spring as the global economy slowed and turmoil in the Middle East seemed to subside.
But crude oil has risen above $95 a barrel from a low of $78 in late June. Investors have worried about disruption to oil supplies in the Middle East and North Sea. In the U.S., there were problems with refineries and pipelines in the West Coast and Midwest, including a fire in California. Seasonal factors are also at play: Summer blends of gas cost more and demand goes up as families go on vacation.
Gas hit an all-time high of $4.11 per gallon in July 2008. But a plunge in oil prices knocked it down to $3.69 by the end of August. Though the national average jumped back to $3.85 in mid-September when Hurricane Ike hit the Gulf Coast, it plummeted to $1.62 per gallon by year-end as the global recession took hold.
On Monday, oil fell in New York trading after four days of gains on more concerns about Europe's economy. European leaders are beginning a series of discussions that could determine Greece's future and the stability of the 17 countries that use the euro.
Benchmark oil dropped 36 cents to $95.65 per barrel in New York. Brent crude, which is used to price international varieties of oil, dropped 10 cents to $113.63 per barrel in London.
Other futures prices on the New York Mercantile Exchange:
- Heating oil increased was flat at $3.09 per gallon.
- Wholesale gasoline rose 1 cent to $3.04 per gallon.
- Natural gas rose 5 cents to $2.77 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Romney Beats Obama In Chicago Suburbs

Alexis Levinson - President Barack Obama could lose his home state of Illinois in November, a new poll shows.
A poll conducted by Illinois-based pollster and political strategist Michael McKeon found Obama leading Republican Mitt Romney by 49 percent to 37 percent in Cook County, the home of Chicago. That puts him ahead by a far thinner margin than expected in a county he should be winning handsomely.
Cook is the most Democratic leaning county in the state. It is also the most populous.
Those numbers do not bode well for the president.
“He has to come out of Cook County with a big lead or he’s gonna have problems downstate,” explained McKeon, who said that based on the numbers he had seen, Obama polled only in the forties in downstate Illinois.
“It’s not like his policies are very popular downstate,” McKeon said. “He’s viewed as more part of Chicago than he is part of Illinois.”
According to the poll, which surveyed 629 registered voters last week, Obama’s problems are not in Chicago proper, but in suburban Cook County.

In the city of Chicago itself, he retains a 60-29 lead over Romney. But the Republican challenger leads 45-38 in the surrounding areas. Across the county as a whole, Romney leads 43-31 among independent voters, a crucial voting bloc. Romney also holds a 44-38 lead among male voters, and a 53-40 lead among white voters.
Illinois is not considered a swing state by any means; it is seen as solidly blue, and has been for the past two election cycles. But McKeon pointed to the 2010 gubernatorial race when Republican Bill Brady came within a single percentage point of now-Gov. Pat Quinn because Brady won most of the downstate counties. That is a feat Romney could repeat this year, leaving Obama vulnerable if he cannot expand his lead in Cook County.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

MSNBC Allows Toure To Race Bait Mitt Romney

Crystal Wright  - Vice-President Biden tells blacks, Romney’s “gonna put y’all back in chains.” Mitt Romney accuses Obama of running a campaign of “anger and division.” Then MSNBC host Toure charges Romney with engaging in the “niggerization” of Obama. WHAT? As my black father (note emphasis) said, “That’s the most unintellectual thing I’ve ever heard. Is he [Toure] making up words” ?
Toure’s making up words and spinning fiction! (Evidently, that’s what a former musical journalist turned political pundit does.) If Biden had included the “n-word” in his me (white) versus “you blacks” statement, Toure may have expressed mild outrage at the remarks. But since Biden serves our black president, Toure doesn’t consider Biden’s comments the “niggerization” of blacks.
Nigger or any derivative thereof is the basest, most racially charged word to call a black person or casually throw around and being black doesn’t give a person special permission to use it. Perhaps Toure has never been called the word nigger, otherwise he would not have uttered it with such ease on national television or have had the audacity to accuse Mitt Romney of engaging in “racial coding” which is code for racist politics.
Now that it’s become clear President Obama can’t run on a record of economic success, Democrats like Toure will resort to the only thing they have left in their arsenal, the Obama race card. Finally, on the stump, Romney is fighting back against Obama’s dirty campaign of lies and distortion.
Romney said: “His campaign and his surrogates have made wild and reckless accusations that disgrace the office of the presidency. This is what an angry and desperate presidency looks like. Mr. President take your campaign of division, anger and hate back to Chicago.”
There is nothing untrue in Romney’s comments. As Michael Gerson wrote , “the demonization of Romney is a main element of its strategy, pursued by Obama’s closest associates and former employees.” Gerson reminds us Obama has engaged in racial pandering, intimidated Republican donors, and accused Romney of killing Joe Spotic’s wife, “which represents the crossing of an ethical line.”
Whether you are Romney or any other American, this looks like a campaign led by an “angry and desperate president,” sinking to new lows to win. Obama has been dividing America since he took office. This is why it’s shocking Toure falsely charged Romney of using “racial coding” to try to paint Obama as the stereotypical “angry black man.”
Obama has waged wars on class, gender, religion, and sexuality and now race. He doesn’t look like the “Black Jesus” of 2008, seeking to heal America or the “no-drama Obama, as Toure described him as.
Toure’s accusations were wildly irresponsible. Obama is “angry” because he’s failed miserably at being president but feels he deserves a second term just because of the color of his skin.
Toure went on to say: “This is part of the playbook against Obama. . .This is niggerization, you are not one of us and that you are like the scary black man, we are trained to fear.”
“This is typical GOP politics, Toure added, the “all white party that rejects the black vote.” No, Toure, the GOP isn’t the all white party and white people aren’t scared of Obama. Whites, blacks and other Americans are sick and tired of being sick and tired of Obama’s misguided policies.
If anyone is engaging in “otherization” politics, as Toure ranted, it’s Obama. From his days as a Senator, Obama put himself above everyone else, using his race to make people believe he was a special kind of black endowed with supernatural powers to heal America. What we’re seeing now is a man so absorbed in self, he can’t see he’s in over his head.
Another example of Obama’s stoking racial politics of “otherization,” was by his Truth Team surrogate Va. State Senator Louise Lucas, Va. State Senator Louise Lucas who accused Mitt Romney of speaking to folks “who don’t like a black man in the White House.” Racist talk is constantly flowing from Obama and his “Truth Team” not Mitt Romney.
I’ve been called nigger mostly by other blacks. In fact when I was in 2nd grade, I heard the word used at school by my black classmates and came home and called my little brother a nigger. My mother told me to never say it again and explained to me how heinous the word was and remains!
If MSNBC has any shred of decency, the network will fire Toure. Not only did he completely misrepresent Mitt Romney’s comments, he offended blacks like me, who’ve been called nigger and find the word both humiliating and disgusting. We know if Toure was white, the termination would have happened before the commercial break.