RasmussePoll: Herman Cain leading in Iowa 28% Among Likely Caucus - Goers

Ed Morrissey - The timing of the latest Rasmussen poll may be the most interesting part of the report.  Herman Cain got his toughest grilling in a national debate on Tuesday, October 18th, and yet the next day, Cain led among likely Iowa caucus-goers by seven points over Mitt Romney.  The Iowa electorate may be firming up their choices, too:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa. (To see survey question wording, click here).
Former Senator Rick Santorum picks up 4% of the vote and former Governor Jon Huntsman is at 2%. Another 4% would prefer some other candidate and 8% are not sure.
Only one-third of the caucus-goers (32%) are certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their mind. Among these voters, 30% prefer Cain, 22% Romney, and 17% Paul.

Cain didn’t have a great debate on Tuesday, but didn’t get rattled, either.  His 9-9-9 plan took more than a few hits, and Cain had to reverse his answer to Wolf Blitzer earlier in the day on negotiating with terrorists and conducting prisoner swaps.  So far it doesn’t appear to have hurt him, but it’s also possible that those issues may take more than a day to manifest themselves as big problems.  This polling also took place before Cain’s confusing answer on abortion last night on CNN, which will not play well at all in socially-conservative Iowa.
The crosstabs show a solid lead across most of the survey’s demographics.  Cain leads Romney among men and women outside the margin of error, as well as voters under the age of 65.  Cain edges Romney among Republicans but nearly doubles up Romney among independents, 28/15, a big problem for Romney if that trend continues.   Romney does lead among self-professed liberals, 20/14, and gets within the MOE with moderates, 23/21 Cain.
Rasmussen also runs the numbers for a three-person race in the primary, and Cain does even better, beating Romney by nine at 40/31 with Perry trailing far behind at 13%.  Interestingly, when Rasmussen takes Perry out and puts Cain and Romney head to head, the polling narrows to a 5-point Cain lead, with Romney tying Cain among women.  That’s an early indication that Perry may not have gotten much of a bounce coming out of his debate performance on Tuesday, or that it may take more than one not-too-bad debate to change minds on his chances.  With about eleven weeks left to go before the caucuses, Perry doesn’t have a lot of time to make the case a second time to carry the banner for Republican conservatives.
This poll isn’t bad news for Romney, either.  Despite having not made Iowa a campaign priority, Romney is poised for no lower than a second-place finish — and could end up winning if Cain implodes.  A second-place finish would give Romney plenty of momentum going into New Hampshire and Nevada, where he’s widely expected t win big, with both Michigan and Florida on the horizon.  If Romney wins Iowa, it will be a lights-out moment for the rest of the field, as Republicans will want to start gearing up to fight Obama as soon as possible.

Rasmusssen Reports Poll: Herman Cain 43 - President Obama 41

 Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Cain attracting 43% support, while Obama earns 41%. Given such a matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Cain is tied with Romney for the lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.  Nobody else is even close at the moment.
Last week,  Cain trailed Obama by three. The week before,  he was behind by five. “Cain now has the chance to make the case for why he should be the challenger to Mitt Romney,” says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “Many others have auditioned for the role and fallen flat, and it remains to be seen whether Cain’s fate will be similar.” Rasmussen interviewed Cain for the Rasmussen Report on radio show.
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Rick Perry is the only other GOP candidate to have ever held a lead against the president in this cycle. That came just as the Texas governor entered the race when he was widely perceived as the front-runner. Perry now trails Obama by double digits.
A generic Republican candidate has consistently held a modest advantage over the president. But named Republican candidates tend to perform a bit weaker against Obama.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate aside from Romney and Cain who earns double-digit support among likely Republican primary voters. He gets 10% backing, well behind Romney and Cain who each pick up 29% of the vote.
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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

LATEST MATCH-UP RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY CLICKING HERE.

Obama	41%	Cain	43%	Oct 14-15, 2011
Obama	49%	Gingrich	34%	Oct 12-13, 2011
Obama	49%	Perry	35%	Oct 10-11, 2011
Obama	43%	Romney	41%	Oct 8-9, 2011
Obama	42%	Johnson	27%	Oct 4-5, 2011
Obama	45%	Santorum	34%	Oct 2-3, 2011
Obama	44%	Paul	34%	Sep 24-25, 2011
Obama	48%	Bachmann	32%	Sep 20-21, 2011
Obama	43%	Huntsman	35%	Sep 16-17, 2011

Cain leads modestly among men but trails slightly among women.
Obama leads among those under 40, while Cain has the edge among those over 40. The GOP hopeful leads by 16 points among those over 65. In 2008, Republican candidate John McCain won among seniors. Since then, the president’s health care law has been very unpopular among those over 65. Most voters continue to favor its repeal.
Cain attracts only 72% of the Republican vote, while the president earns 82% support from voters in his party. However, Cain leads by 19 among those not affiliated with either major party.
The president’s Job Approval remains the best single indicator for his reelection prospects. On Election Day next year, his Job Approval rating is likely to nearly match his vote total. 
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
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