Newt Gingrich: MSNBC Headquarters For Pres. Obama Re-Election

RealClearPolitics. com - "I understand there are places like MSNBC that are essentially the Obama re-election team. But, you know, that's fine. This is a free society. You can also say that Fox tends to be nicer to [Republicans] than to Obama," presidential candidate Newt Gingrich said at a campaign event in Jacksonville, Florida today.

Gingrich praised the mainstream media for vetting candidates, noting, though, they only do it for Republican or conservative candidates.

Gingrich says he is confident that after the media vets him that the American people will be satisfied.

"In the next three weeks, I predict to you we will have all sorts of questions about me. And it's fine. You can not ask the people of the United States to loan you the most powerful governmental job in the world, particularly in a campaign that's promising very dramatic change, and not have them vet you carefully and thoroughly," Gingrich said.

NH Journal Poll: New Gingrich In Virtual Dead Heat Mitt Romney

Ed Morrissey - Yes, I think it’s safe to say that the Newt Gingrich bubble has gotten serious.  A new poll from Magellan Strategies in New Hampshire — Mitt Romney’s long-held redoubt — shows Gingrich now in a virtual dead heat with the presumed Republican frontrunner.  As NH Journal reports, the internals look even better for Gingrich than the top-line numbers:

The latest NH Journal poll of likely Republican primary voters conducted by Magellan Strategies shows Romney and Gingrich in a statistical dead heat for the January 10th primary. If the election were held today, Romney would earn 29% of the vote and Gingrich would earn 27%. Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to show resolve by earning 16%. Herman Cain gets 10%. No other candidate is in double digits.
This is the first time any of NH Journal’s polls have shown anyone candidate even close to Romney. It also shows tremendous movement for Gingrich since NH Journal’s October survey, in which Gingrich was in third place, but at only 10% versus Romney’s 41%. …
A close look at the data shows Gingrich is actually leading Romney among certain important subgroups of the electorate. Among self-identified conservative voters, Gingrich beats Romney 34%-27%. Among self-identified tea party voters, he leads Romney 38%-21%.
However, Romney has a wide lead over Gingrich among Undeclared voters, who give the former Massachusetts Governor 29% over Paul’s 19% and Gingrich’s 18%. There is also a significant gender gap for both Romney and Gingrich. Romney beats Gingrich 33%-22% among women while Gingrich defeats Romney 32%-24% among men.

If this is not an outlier (Magellan is a fairly reliable pollster), then this is a blockbuster result.  Romney doesn’t need to win Iowa to garner the nomination; a strong second-place finish there could propel him quickly to the ticket — but only if he wins New Hampshire.  A loss in this state would be a body blow, especially if Gingrich wins Iowa ahead of New Hampshire and then takes aim at South Carolina and Florida.  Even a win in Michigan and Nevada might not slow down Gingrich, and Romney could be looking at a second consecutive CPAC concession in his presidential-campaign career if he loses either or both of those.
There are, however, a couple of big caveats.  No one has really tested Gingrich in this campaign, mainly because no one has needed to go on the attack against someone who hasn’t been a front-runner.  Romney will have no choice now but to open fire on the man who has praised him in the debates, and probably with much more gusto than he did against Rick Perry, who was never a threat to Romney in New Hampshire.
Another point to keep in mind is that Gingrich himself has only begun to perform as a front-runner, and he comes to this polling result with a huge disadvantage in organization.  Last night, Gingrich welcomed back the staff who walked out on him in June, which might accelerate the organizational build-up he needs to really compete in Iowa and New Hampshire:

For Newt Gingrich, the latest twist on “what goes around, comes around” has an unusual personal dimension. On top of his surge in polls and fund-raising, Mr. Gingrich has rehired two of the Iowa staff members who quit during a mass exodus from his campaign in June. …
Thanks to his solid performances in national debates, he has gradually gained supporters and donors, emerging at the top of some recent polls and flush with enough money to hire a new staff.
Last week he opened offices in New Hampshire and South Carolina. And on Thursday the campaign announced it had rehired Craig Schoenfeld, who had been state director in Iowa before the departures, and Katie Koberg, who had been deputy director. The hirings were first reported by The Des Moines Register.

Still, the polling results offer a bad omen for Romney, who had been quietly building a narrative of inevitability for his nomination.  If he becomes vulnerable in the one state he had thought was locked into his camp, then the state might be open to nearly any one of the candidates who can manage to boost their polling.  If Gingrich can build his organization quickly and manage to withstand the scrutiny of being the front-runner, he could push Romney out of the nomination by early January … but those are mighty big ifs, too.

Iowa State Poll: Cain 24%, Paul 20%, Romney 16%

CEDAR RAPIDS — With fewer than 50 days until Iowa’s first-in-the-nation precinct caucuses, the Republican presidential race appears to be up for grabs based on the results of an Iowa State University/Gazette/KCRG poll of likely caucusgoers.

“That’s more the story than who’s ahead,” said Jim McCormick, chairman of the ISU Political Science Department, who coordinated the poll.

“The number of people who are firmly committed to a candidate is really only 16.5 percent,” McCormick said. “A majority of them, 52-plus, are undecided and 30 percent are sort of leaning toward one candidate.”

Herman Cain leads the field with the support of 24.5 percent of 1,256 registered Iowa voters polled. Texas Rep. Ron Paul follows with 20.4 percent and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is third at 16.3 percent.

“Can’t decide” polled 8.1 percent — more than Texas Gov. Rick Perry (7.9 percent), Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachman (7.6 percent), former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (4.8 percent) and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (4.7 percent). Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who has not campaigned in Iowa, received no support. “Other” polled 5.8 percent. The margin of error is plus or minus 5 percent.

“My takeaway from these results is that voters are still really unsure of whom they will support,” said Dave Peterson, interim director of the Harkin Institute of Public Policy at ISU and associate professor of political science, who also assisted with the poll. “Over half of the people are still trying to decide, and another third are merely leaning toward a candidate. When asked, people will express a preference for one candidate  but that they will also admit that this is a weak attitude.”

The poll was compiled through phone interviews Nov. 1-13 and surveyed 979 registered Republicans and 277 registered independents. Of those polled, 377 (30 percent) stated that they definitely or probably would attend the Republican caucus Jan. 3.

Two other important takeaways from the poll, McCormick said, are Cain’s popularity among likely GOP caucus-goers — including women — despite recent allegations of sexual harassment and an apparent decline in the impact of traditional retail politics.

News of the sexual harassment claims was breaking as the poll was being conducted.

“The maintenance of his support seems quite remarkable,” McCormick said.

The fact Cain and Romney are top-tier candidate despite infrequent visits suggests to McCormick “that retail politics — typically a hallmark of Iowa — is not the way the caucuses are going to be decided this year.”

Cain has visited 25 times but just twice since his fifth-place finish in the August Republican straw poll. Romney has visited a half dozen times.

“Contrast that with Santorum, who visited all 99 counties, and Bachmann, who repeatedly talks about being born in Iowa and has spent a lot of time here, and they’re down in the single-digit percentages,” McCormick said.

Romney has a lot of “holdover” support, according to University of Iowa political scientist Tim Hagle, and Cain’s number may not reflect the number of visits to Iowa so much as it’s his turn at the top of the leaderboard. The GOP campaign has been marked by “surge and fade” of Bachmann, then Perry, Cain and now Gingrich, he said.

While he doesn’t disagree with McCormick’s analysis, Hagle cautions that because the race is so volatile that all polls have to be taken with a grain of salt.

The timing of the polling may not have fully captured the reaction to the allegations against Cain or his trouble answering a question about President Obama’s handling of Libya as well as Gingrich’s apparent surge of support in recent days, Hagle said.

The results suggest the tea party is likely to have a strong effect on the caucuses. More than a quarter of likely caucus-goers identify themselves as part of the tea party movement. Nearly a third of them support Cain; 14 percent back Paul. Paul, Cain and Romney run neck-and-neck among non-tea party poll respondents.

Other key findings of the poll are:

• “Can’t Decide” (21.5 percent) was the most frequent second choice. Cain, Perry, Romney and Paul all had more than 10 percent support as respondents’  second choice.

• Most of the candidates have a small gender gap among supporters. Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich. Paul and Bachmann do better with men than with women.

• Cain has strong support across all income levels, particularly among those earning $100,000 a year or more. Among the least well off, Paul leads at around 41 percent. The wealthiest voters have the highest level of “undecideds.”

• There are sizable differences in the level of candidate support based on religious beliefs. Cain leads among three categories — Catholics, born-again Protestants and mainstream Protestants. Among those with no religious preference, Paul captured nearly 59 percent.

• Romney wins support across all educational levels. It rises with education level. Cain and Paul’s support is highest among those with either some college or a college degree.