Obama Losing Support With Occupy Wall street Protesters

Marjorie Connelly - Zuccotti Park in New York’s financial district is decked out with posters and signs for the wide array of political viewpoints of the Occupy Wall Street protesters. The six-week-old movement has several Web sites to promote various perspectives. But just who are these protesters? What is their political ideology? Do they have jobs?

Costas Panagopoulos, a professor of political science at Fordham University, recently conducted a survey of the Occupy Wall Street protesters in New York.

Dr. Panagopoulos described the protesters as “disgruntled Democrats.” Sixty percent of those surveyed said they voted for Barack Obama in 2008, and about three-quarters now disapprove of Mr. Obama’s performance as president. A quarter said they were Democrats, but 39 percent said they did not identify with any political party. Eleven percent identified as Socialists, another 11 percent said they were members of the Green Party, 2 percent were Republicans and 12 percent say they identified as something else.

Questionnaires handed out by Dr. Panagopoulos’s team of 15 interviewers throughout the park were completed by 301 adults from Oct. 14 to Oct. 18. “I followed the academic protocols that colleagues of mine adopted in the past to survey demonstrations,” he said.

In the survey, 80 percent described themselves as liberal; half of those said they were extremely liberal.

Most protesters surveyed had serious misgivings about the federal government: 52 percent said the government in Washington could be trusted to do what was right only some of the time, and another 42 percent said it could never be trusted. Similarly, almost all — 97 percent — disapprove of how Congress is doing its job.

Three in 10 of the Occupy Wall Street protesters picked unemployment as the most important problem facing the country, by far the top response. Ten percent said health care, followed by the federal deficit and government spending (9 percent) and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq (9 percent).

Although most elected Democrats have offered only guarded support of the movement, more than two-thirds of those surveyed say the protest is likely to have an effect on the views of Democratic politicians. “They have ambitious expectations of the Democrats,” Dr. Panagopoulos said. “And are likely to be disappointed if their optimism is misplaced.” Most think the protests are less likely to change the opinions of Republican politicians.

Two-thirds of the survey respondents have attended college, and 25 percent are currently students. Thirty percent have full-time jobs and 18 percent are employed part-time. Forty percent are members of a union household. (Nationally, in a recent New York Times/CBS News poll, 58 percent of the general public have attended college and 62 percent are employed, either full-time or part-time.)

Herman Cain Leads In Des Moines Register Poll In Iowa With 23%

Republican presidential hopeful Herman Cain has taken the lead in the race to win the Iowa Caucuses, according to a Des Moines Register poll published Saturday. 

Cain finished with 23 percent, narrowly beating former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who finished with 22 percent. The two are essentially tied however, as Cain's one point lead falls within the poll's +/-4.9 percentage point margin of error. 

Cain's finish shows a significant gain of support in Iowa, as he scored just 10 percent in the Register's first poll held in June. Romney's support relatively stayed the same. 

The retired pizza executive's numbers strengthened in Iowa despite him spending little time campaigning The Hawkeye State, with only one appearance there since Aug. 13 -- at the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition's presidential forum on Oct. 22.

In a post on Facebook, Cain said, "I am glad to hear that the people of Iowa want a proven problem solver offering real solutions ... Thank you."

Texas Rep. Ron Paul finished third in the poll on 12 percent, while no other contender polled more than 10 percent.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who finished a close second in the Register's first poll with 22 percent, dropped to 8 percent to finish fourth in Saturday's poll. Despite the sharp fall in support, Bachmann's Iowa campaign manager Eric Woolson said he was confident the candidate would still win the primary in January.

"Poll numbers have bounced up and down on weekly, sometimes daily basis," Woolson said in a statement. "We'll see much more of that before caucus night but one thing I'm convinced of is that Michele Bachmann will come out on top on Jan. 3."

Texas Gov. Rick Perry and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich tied for fifth each with 7 percent. Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum finished with 5 percent, and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman gained 1 percent. 

CBS/NYT Poll: Herman Cain 25% - Gov. Mitt Romney 21%

Corbertt B. Daily - Businessman Herman Cain is now atop the field of Republican White House hopefuls, squeaking past former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the latest CBS News/New York Times poll.

Cain garnered 25 percent support of Republican primary voters in the poll released on Tuesday, compared to Romney's 21 percent.

In early October, the two men were tied at 17 percent.

The poll was conducted Oct 19-24 among 1,650 adults. 1,475 interviews were conducted among registered voters and 455 voters who said they plan to vote in a Republican primary. The margin of error among primary voters is plus or minus four percentage points.

Cain's support surged among voters who identified with the conservative Tea Party wing of the Republican party, rising to 32 percent in mid-October from 18 percent just a few weeks ago. That's more than four times the level of support he had from the group in mid-September.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich took 10 percent of likely primary voters, while Texas Rep. Ron Paul's support was at 8 percent.

Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who led the poll in mid-September, plunged to just 6 percent support. He had 12 percent in early October and 23 percent in mid-September.

Romney's Tea Party support has held steady in October, at 18 percent, after a modest increase from September's 12 percent.

Perry, however, has seen his Tea Party backing go up in steam. He had just 7 percent support in the latest poll, compared to 12 percent in early October and a staggering 30 percent in mid-September.

Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman were at the back of the pack, with 2 percent, 1 percent and 1 percent respectively.

The race is still open, as voters are not firm in their support of any of the candidates. About four of five voters said it is too early to say for sure who they support for the nomination, with just 19 percent saying their minds are already made up. That's about the same as it was at this point in 2007.

Americans are getting interested in the 2012 race for president. About 70 percent of registered voters nationwide are paying at least some attention to the 2012 election campaign, including 31 percent who said they are paying a lot of attention.

Republicans, of course, are paying closer attention to the campaign. About 78 percent said they were following the campaign closely, compared to about 68 percent of Democrats.

RasmussePoll: Herman Cain leading in Iowa 28% Among Likely Caucus - Goers

Ed Morrissey - The timing of the latest Rasmussen poll may be the most interesting part of the report.  Herman Cain got his toughest grilling in a national debate on Tuesday, October 18th, and yet the next day, Cain led among likely Iowa caucus-goers by seven points over Mitt Romney.  The Iowa electorate may be firming up their choices, too:

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa caucus-goers shows that Cain is in front with 28% followed by former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney at 21%. Congressman Ron Paul is a distant third at 10% followed by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich at 9%, Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann at 8%, and Texas Governor Rick Perry at 7%. The sixth place finish for Perry is a sharp decline from early September when Perry was the frontrunner both nationally and in Iowa. (To see survey question wording, click here).
Former Senator Rick Santorum picks up 4% of the vote and former Governor Jon Huntsman is at 2%. Another 4% would prefer some other candidate and 8% are not sure.
Only one-third of the caucus-goers (32%) are certain of their vote and don’t expect to change their mind. Among these voters, 30% prefer Cain, 22% Romney, and 17% Paul.

Cain didn’t have a great debate on Tuesday, but didn’t get rattled, either.  His 9-9-9 plan took more than a few hits, and Cain had to reverse his answer to Wolf Blitzer earlier in the day on negotiating with terrorists and conducting prisoner swaps.  So far it doesn’t appear to have hurt him, but it’s also possible that those issues may take more than a day to manifest themselves as big problems.  This polling also took place before Cain’s confusing answer on abortion last night on CNN, which will not play well at all in socially-conservative Iowa.
The crosstabs show a solid lead across most of the survey’s demographics.  Cain leads Romney among men and women outside the margin of error, as well as voters under the age of 65.  Cain edges Romney among Republicans but nearly doubles up Romney among independents, 28/15, a big problem for Romney if that trend continues.   Romney does lead among self-professed liberals, 20/14, and gets within the MOE with moderates, 23/21 Cain.
Rasmussen also runs the numbers for a three-person race in the primary, and Cain does even better, beating Romney by nine at 40/31 with Perry trailing far behind at 13%.  Interestingly, when Rasmussen takes Perry out and puts Cain and Romney head to head, the polling narrows to a 5-point Cain lead, with Romney tying Cain among women.  That’s an early indication that Perry may not have gotten much of a bounce coming out of his debate performance on Tuesday, or that it may take more than one not-too-bad debate to change minds on his chances.  With about eleven weeks left to go before the caucuses, Perry doesn’t have a lot of time to make the case a second time to carry the banner for Republican conservatives.
This poll isn’t bad news for Romney, either.  Despite having not made Iowa a campaign priority, Romney is poised for no lower than a second-place finish — and could end up winning if Cain implodes.  A second-place finish would give Romney plenty of momentum going into New Hampshire and Nevada, where he’s widely expected t win big, with both Michigan and Florida on the horizon.  If Romney wins Iowa, it will be a lights-out moment for the rest of the field, as Republicans will want to start gearing up to fight Obama as soon as possible.

Rasmusssen Reports Poll: Herman Cain 43 - President Obama 41

 Whether Herman Cain’s surge in the polls is temporary or has staying power, he’s enjoying a big enough bounce to take a very slight lead over President Obama in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. At the moment, the Georgia businessman is the only Republican with a lead of any kind over Obama, although former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney has held a similar advantage several times and is currently trailing the president by just two points.
The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Cain attracting 43% support, while Obama earns 41%. Given such a matchup, eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Cain is tied with Romney for the lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination.  Nobody else is even close at the moment.
Last week,  Cain trailed Obama by three. The week before,  he was behind by five. “Cain now has the chance to make the case for why he should be the challenger to Mitt Romney,” says Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports. “Many others have auditioned for the role and fallen flat, and it remains to be seen whether Cain’s fate will be similar.” Rasmussen interviewed Cain for the Rasmussen Report on radio show.
Don’t miss the latest public opinion news on politics, business, the economy, lifestyle issues and more. Rasmussen Reports subscribers can read more than 20 exclusive stories each week. It’s just $3.95 a month or $34.95 a year. Check it out with a three-day free trial subscription.  Remember, if it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.
Rick Perry is the only other GOP candidate to have ever held a lead against the president in this cycle. That came just as the Texas governor entered the race when he was widely perceived as the front-runner. Perry now trails Obama by double digits.
A generic Republican candidate has consistently held a modest advantage over the president. But named Republican candidates tend to perform a bit weaker against Obama.
Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the only other candidate aside from Romney and Cain who earns double-digit support among likely Republican primary voters. He gets 10% backing, well behind Romney and Cain who each pick up 29% of the vote.
(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls).  Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.
The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 14-15, 2011 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

LATEST MATCH-UP RESULTS CAN BE FOUND BY CLICKING HERE.

Obama	41%	Cain	43%	Oct 14-15, 2011
Obama	49%	Gingrich	34%	Oct 12-13, 2011
Obama	49%	Perry	35%	Oct 10-11, 2011
Obama	43%	Romney	41%	Oct 8-9, 2011
Obama	42%	Johnson	27%	Oct 4-5, 2011
Obama	45%	Santorum	34%	Oct 2-3, 2011
Obama	44%	Paul	34%	Sep 24-25, 2011
Obama	48%	Bachmann	32%	Sep 20-21, 2011
Obama	43%	Huntsman	35%	Sep 16-17, 2011

Cain leads modestly among men but trails slightly among women.
Obama leads among those under 40, while Cain has the edge among those over 40. The GOP hopeful leads by 16 points among those over 65. In 2008, Republican candidate John McCain won among seniors. Since then, the president’s health care law has been very unpopular among those over 65. Most voters continue to favor its repeal.
Cain attracts only 72% of the Republican vote, while the president earns 82% support from voters in his party. However, Cain leads by 19 among those not affiliated with either major party.
The president’s Job Approval remains the best single indicator for his reelection prospects. On Election Day next year, his Job Approval rating is likely to nearly match his vote total. 
Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.
Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update  (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter  or Facebook .  Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

Gallup Shows Obama Trails Any Republican 46%-38%

Ed Morrissey - I think I have this election licked.  All we need to do is find a Republican candidate with plain wrapping and a blue stripe:

U.S. registered voters, by 46% to 38%, continue to say they are more likely to vote for the Republican presidential candidate than for Barack Obama in the 2012 presidential election. The generic Republican led by the same eight-percentage-point margin in September, and also held a lead in July. The August update, conducted just after an agreement to raise the federal debt limit, had Obama with a slight edge.
The current results are based on a Gallup poll conducted Oct. 6-9. The eight-point lead for the Republican candidate persists, 50% to 42%, when taking into account the leanings of undecided voters.

Is this really a good indicator of future outcomes?  That’s arguable. Gallup notes that an incumbent President 20 years ago had a 17-point lead over the generic challenger, and who could forget the glorious second term of George H. W. Bush? On the other hand, his son had a narrow 3-point lead at this stage over a generic opponent and won the next year by just about the same margin.
Of course, an incumbent President should have a substantial lead over an unknown challenger, at least if that President wants a second term.  When an incumbent falls below 50%, a risk arises of having undecideds break sharply for “change,” and Obama is 12 points below that threshold.  That’s not in the “change” category, that’s in the “jump ship” category.  This is the second time in a row that Gallup has Obama at this low re-elect support against a generic challenger, both of which are new lows in this series.  It indicates that his new class-warfare schtick isn’t playing well with voters, at least not at the moment.
However, Republicans won’t be nominating a generic opponent; they will have to nominate someone whose weaknesses will get tested by the Obama campaign for months, while Obama’s weaknesses are already well known.  This poll shows that the eventual Republican nominee will face an electorate that wants a change — but the nominee will still have to make the case.

Fast And Furious Investagation "Bigger Than Watergate"

Rabble Rouser And Reverend Amy - So say Obama officials about the “Fast and Furious” program, according to Sharyl Attkisson (h/t to Helenk for this article). This story is moving fast now, with Holder being issued a subpoena by Congressional investigators finally (again, thanks, Helenk!).

But I don’t want to get ahead of myself. What Ms. Attkisson said in a recent CBS radio interview with Chris Stigall is really startling, shocking, infuriating, and disconcerting. No, really, it is. Check out these excerpts from the interview:

“Since the very beginning, those who knew a lot more about this case than I did, including officials who work for the Obama Administration – this is nothing particularly against him or anyone else who happened to be in charge – they have said this is bigger than Iran Contra. They have said this is bigger than Watergate.” Attkisson replied.

The CBS investigative reporter also noted, “The idea that this started as one whistleblower that pretty much all the officials were painting out to be a liar – an ATF agent in Phoenix. And to see where this has moved over the months to officials admitting, okay this program was going on but it was isolated to Phoenix, Arizona. Then saying, okay people did know about it at ATF headquarters, but that’s where it stopped. To saying, ok the White House and DOJ did know about Fast & Furious but they didn’t know about the details.”

Doesn’t that just make you so angry? The lies, lies, and more lies to cover up what this Administration did while casting false aspersions against the whistleblower. And that is just the start of it.

Attkisson discusses the issue of Holder and his testimony, and there is lots coming out about that now (again, Holder has been subpoenad), but this part of the interview really caught my eye:

The Philadelphia radio host then queried, “Do you believe Sharyl that this goes beyond the Department of Justice because of the international nature and the homeland security nature? I have read people surmising that this has to involve almost by definition it must involve the Secretary of State’s office and the Department of Homeland Security.”

“Congress is trying to find that out, they’ve been asking for documents from the State Department and other departments and haven’t always gotten – well, they haven’t gotten a lot of what they asked for, so they don’t know yet.” Attkisson replied. (Click here to read the rest.)

Okay, I had not thought about the potential State Department component of all of this. It makes sense, of course, considering the involvement with another nation. Naturally, any discussion of the State Department cannot be had without mentioning the head of the Department, Sec. Clinton.

I know this is going to sound silly, but it honestly choked me up to read this. I am just so disheartened by Clinton’s participation in this tainted Administration, and all of the ways her carrying out Obama’s flawed policies affect her. With hindsight being 20/20, I wish she had never sullied her name by going to work for this man. Now, she is connected to this incredibly short-sighted program which cost the life of a border patrol agent and numerous Mexicans, giving support to the TALIBAN opening offices in Qatar, even as they are attacking our embassies and military bases, and validating the Muslim Brotherhood. And that is just the tip of the iceberg. Never mind her going to work for a man who was abusive to her, and women in general, a reality that overshadows her work for women and children.

Indeed – all I can think of is the old adage, if you lie down with dogs, you get up with fleas.

As for Holder, despite his whining and complaining, he is in the very midst of this whole thing. I love this excuse from the head of the DOJ:

On Friday, Holder sent a letter to congressional investigators stating that he does not read every document addressed to him and that they are reviewed by members of his staff. Holder went on to say that none of the reports mentioned the controversial tactics used in Fast and Furious.

Ah, the “I didn’t do my job by reading these critical reports” defense. Good one! Except Issa is not buying what Holder is selling (thank goodness):

On Monday, Issa, chairman of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which is investigating the scandal, replied to Holder in a letter saying, “Operation Fast and Furious was the department’s most significant gun trafficking case. Whether you realize yet or not, you own Fast and Furious. It is your responsibility.”

Issa told “Fox News Sunday” that he was going to issue the subpoena to find out why the top Justice officials are “denying knowing about something that they were briefed on?”

“We want to know what and when they knew it,” he said. “But more importantly, we have to understand — at what level of the authorization really come? It wasn’t an ATF operation. They were part of that. It was a joint operation in which DEA knew more than ATF.” (Click here to read the rest.)

Yes, we DO want to know what, where, how, why all of this came to be, as well as the involvement of the State Department, and any other government departments that may have had a hand in this poorly conceived program.

So, let the subpoenas fly, Rep. Issa. Let’s get tot the bottom of this no matter where it leads or who it takes down. Watergate was big, HUGE, in fact. If this is bigger, then let the hearings begin

Should Conservatives Endorse Herman Cain 9-9-9 Plan

Ed Morrissey - Herman Cain got what he wanted from this week’s debate — he drew attention to his 9-9-9 plan for tax reform, and he proved that he could handle attacks from the field and maintain his aggressiveness.  But now that Cain has drawn attention to the plan he says will jump start the economy, he will find more questions and challenges as well as supporters.  In the latter camp, Art Laffer has given his supply-side stamp of approval:

Famed supply-side economist Art Laffer told HUMAN EVENTS that Cain’s “9-9-9″ plan was a pro-growth plan that would create the proper conditions for America’s economy to grow and thrive again.
“Herman Cain’s 9-9-9 plan would be a vast improvement over the current tax system and a boon to the U.S. economy,” Laffer told HUMAN EVENTS in a statement. “The goal of supply-side tax reform is always a broadening of the tax base and lowering of marginal tax rates.”
Added Laffer: “Mr. Cain’s plan is simple, transparent, neutral with respect to capital and labor, and savings and consumption, and also greatly decreases the hidden costs of tax compliance. There is no doubt that economic growth would surge upon implementation of 9-9-9.”
Laffer also said that “such a system provides the least avenues to avoid paying taxes, yet also maintains the strongest incentives for work effort, production, and investment.”

On the other hand, ABC News walked through the implications for a household of four earning the average national wage of “just under $50,000,” and finds that these middle-class voters will get squeezed, and squeezed hard.  That’s largely due to the third “nine,” the new federal sales tax that Cain’s proposal would create in tandem with flat taxes on personal and corporate income (also see update below):

If you have a family of four with an income of just under $50,000, they would pay more under the Cain plan. Currently, they are taxed at just less than 7 percent and pay $3,400 in income tax. Under Cain’s plan, they would be taxed at 9 percent or pay $4,500.
That’s $1,100 more.
Although the family would save almost $4,000 in Social Security taxes, it would have to give up the child tax credit of $4,000. Furthermore, it would pay an additional national sales tax of 9 percent on everything purchased, including groceries and clothes, which totals about $2,000.
That means under the Cain plan that family would be almost doubling its taxes, going from $3,400 to $6,500.

Most of the damage in this case comes not from the flattening of the tax code and the elimination of deductions — which would be almost entirely offset by the elimination of other tax streams, as Cain promises — but from the national sales tax.  In my column for The Fiscal Times today, I question whether conservatives want to champion a new tax that almost by definition will have a regressive impact on voters — and could open a constitutional Pandora’s Box that will undermine arguments against creeping federal encroachment.  But first, let’s be clear as to what exactly 9-9-9 is — and isn’t:

It is not a comprehensive economic plan. It’s actually not even a budget plan. That’s why Cain’s challenge to Romney in the debate was somewhat unfair; Romney’s 160-page proposal is a broad economic plan with specifics on deficit reduction and entitlement reform, trade and energy policy. 9-9-9 is more properly categorized as tax reform.
9-9-9 is also transitional tax reform, not the end goal. On Cain’s website, he describes 9-9-9 as merely Phase 1 of tax reform. The final stage of Cain’s tax vision is the Fair Tax proposal pushed by Mike Huckabee in the 2008 election cycle, which is a consumption tax modeled on the European value-added tax (VAT). Cain developed the 9-9-9 plan to “unite the ‘Flat Taxers’ with the ‘Fair Taxers.’”

That’s a laudable goal, but instead of uniting the two camps by using a flat tax as an intermediate step, Cain adds the federal sales tax while the income taxes are still in place.  That creates a new federal income stream rather than replacing the existing income-tax stream.  We’d have to hope that Congress could repeal the 16th Amendment shortly after implementing 9-9-9, but that’s a time-consuming process.  Cain is going to have a hard time finding two-thirds of the politicians in Congress willing to give up their ability to use the income tax as a spoils system, either now or in the future.  In the meantime, the federal government will be inserting itself into every retail transaction in the country.
And just how do conservatives feel about that?

Finally, without a specific constitutional amendment authorizing it, a federal sales tax on general purchases would get challenged by small-government federalists on principle. Unless the sale crosses state lines, it is difficult to see federal jurisdiction at the cash register for most transactions. Accepting that Congress can impose a sales tax on transactions at the local grocery store without a Constitutional amendment granting such authority would require conservatives to embrace a Wickard v Filburn philosophy of interstate commerce. Since a rejection of that philosophy is at the heart of conservative opposition to ObamaCare and its mandate, don’t expect conservatives to leap for joy at the thought of a new definition of interstate commerce that fits the final “nine” in Cain’s plan.

The federal sales tax, at least without a Constitutional amendment, makes the limitation of federal authority to interstate commerce absolutely dead.  If they have tax jurisdiction on any retail sales transaction in America, then Congress has the explicit power to regulate all commerce, not just the encroachments we’ve seen through Wickard.
Cain’s a smart man who knows how to adapt when a business plan doesn’t work out.  I’d prefer to see his 9-9-9 plan modified to a 15-15 plan, or a plan to just transfer to a constitutionally-based (and constitutionally-limited) Fair Tax without the intermediate steps at all, rather than a hybrid that ends up with Americans paying taxes in two streams, and Congress still able to manipulate both for their own political purposes.  Cain has proven that he thinks out of the box, and he’s absolutely right that we can’t pivot to long-term growth and economic stability by tweaking the systems we currently have — but a new federal sales tax on top of an income tax would be a Pandora’s Box conservatives should not want to see opened.
Update: HA reader Bill C says ABC’s computation is in error:

The first step is fine … $3400 vs $4500.  However, the $4000 from Soc Sec. taxes is direct return, but the $4000 tax credit is an adjustment to the amount to be taxed, to the amount they pay MORE would be 9% of that or $360.  $4500 – $4000 + $360 = $860.  If you then add the $2000, you end up with $3400 vs $2860.
So it is not almost doubling the tax, but reducing it by a little more than $500.

I’ll drop ABC a note to ask them to review this, but I believe Bill is correct.
Update II: However, the Tax Policy Center says the Cain calculation is also overstating current tax liability for a family of four at $50,000 (via Jen Rubin):

In fact, a family making $50,000 a year with two children would only pay about $776 in income taxes when standard deductions are factored in, based on 2010 Internal Revenue Service levels. (In fact, not factoring in deductions, a married couple filing jointly making $50,000 a year would pay $6,666 in income tax, not $10,000. But what’s important for tax purposes is “taxable” income.)
Here’s the math:
- Gross Income: $50,000
- Subtract the 2010 standard deduction: $11,400 (2011 is $11,600)
- Subtract the personal exemption (essentially the number of people in the house): $14,600 ($3,650 x 4)
- That brings us to a taxable income of $24,000
- The tax on a married couple filing jointly at $24,000: $2,766
- Then, deduct an additional $2,000 ($1,000 child tax credit x 2)
That comes out to just $766. And that doesn’t include other potential exemptions, like educator credits, moving costs, student-loan interest, health-savings accounts, etc.

ABC also got the child tax credits wrong; it’s correct in this analysis.

Herman Cain Leads Gov. Romney In South Carolina

                                                       South Carolina Republican Presidential Primary

South Carolina
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Oct 2011
Bachmann	5%
Cain	26%
Gingrich	8%
Huntsman	-
Johnson	-
Paul	7%
Perry	15%
Roemer	-
Romney	25%
Santorum	1%
Other	1%
Undecided	12%

Herman Cain leads the South Carolina Republican presidential primary with 26%. Cain is followed closely by Mitt Romney at 25%. Rick Perry is third at 15%.
In July, Romney was leading with 25%, followed by Sarah Palin at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 13%, and Herman Cain at 10%.
Among likely primary voters considering themselves to be Republicans, Cain and Romney are tied at 27% each, followed by Perry at 15%.
Among Tea Party supporters, Cain leads with 35%, followed by Perry at 16% and Romney at 15%.
Among those saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 33%, followed by Cain at 19%, Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 10%.
Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted October 5-10 can be found here.

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September 30, 2011
Lynch and Obama Job Approval in New Hampshire

Lynch Job Approval Ratings
9/29/2011	Approve	Disapprove	Undecided
Overall	56%	23%	21%
Economy	55%	27%	18%

Has John Lynch received the highest quarterly job approval rating since the New Hampshire Poll began in 1976? No.
The highest quarterly job approval rating, 77%, goes to Jeanne Shaheen in March 1998. She is followed closely by Steve Merrill in June 1993 with an approval rating of 76%, and John Sununu in June 1983 with an approval rating of 71%. Lynch's highest approval rating to date was 68% in September 2006. Lynch's quarterly average is 52% approve compared to Shaheen's average of 53% approve while she was governor.

Obama Job Approval Ratings in NH
9/29/2011	Approve	Disapprove	Undecided
Overall	31%	59%	10%
Economy	27%	65%	8%

A total of 51% of New Hampshire residents say they are financially worse off compared to a year ago, 37% say they are the same, and 12% say they are better off. Of the 31% saying they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president, 29% say they are better off, 50% say they are the same, and 21% say they are worse off. Of the 59% saying they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job, 6% say they are financially better off, 29% say they are the same, and 65% say they are worse off compared to a year ago.
Results from the September 2011 Quarterly New Hampshire Poll are now available. NH residents rate NH business conditions, their personal finances, John Lynch, and Barack Obama.

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September 28, 2011
Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus

Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers	Sep 2011
Bachmann	15%
Cain	6%
Gingrich	8%
Huntsman	1%
Johnson	-
Palin	4%
Paul	12%
Perry	14%
Roemer	1%
Romney	21%
Santorum	2%
Other	1%
Undecided	15%

Mitt Romney leads among likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers with 21%. Romney is followed by Michele Bachmann at 15%, Rick Perry at 14%, and Ron Paul at 12%.
In early July, Bachmann was leading with 21%, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 14%, Sarah Palin at 11%, and Perry at 2%.
Among Tea Party supporters, Bachmann leads with 19% (down from 30% in July), Perry is at 14% (up from 3% in July), Gingrich and Paul are at 13% each, Herman Cain is at 10%, and Romney is at 6%.
Among those saying they are not Tea Party supporters or are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 37% (up from 31% in July), followed by Perry at 15%, Paul at 11%, and Bachmann at 10%.
Among those saying they will definitely attend the Republican caucus, Romney leads with 19% (up from 17% in July), followed by Bachmann and Perry at 15% each, and Paul at 14%. In July, 25% of definite Republican caucus-goers said Bachmann and 2% said Perry.
Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican caucus-goers conducted September 22-27 can be found here.

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September 22, 2011
New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

New Hampshire
Likely Republican Primary Voters	Sep 2011
Bachmann	7%
Cain	4%
Gingrich	4%
Huntsman	10%
Johnson	-
Palin	4%
Paul	12%
Perry	13%
Roemer	1%
Romney	30%
Santorum	2%
Other	1%
Undecided	12%

Mitt Romney continues to lead the New Hampshire Republican presidential preference primary. Romney, at 30% among likely Republican primary voters, is followed by Rick Perry at 13%, Ron Paul at 12%, and Jon Huntsman at 10%.
Preference for Romney is virtually unchanged since a similar survey in July, but Perry is up 11 percentage points, Huntsman is up 10 percentage points, and Paul is up 8 percentage points from the July survey. Bachmann has lost 5 percentage points since the July survey.
Romney leads among registered Republicans likely to vote in the presidential primary with 35%, followed by Perry at 13% and Paul at 10%. Among undeclared voters (independents), Romney leads with 19%, followed by Huntsman at 17%, Paul at 15%, and Perry at 14%.
Perry leads among Tea Party supporters with 23%, followed by Romney at 21%, and Paul at 10%. Among likely Republican primary voters saying they are not supporters of the Tea Party or that they are undecided about the Tea Party, Romney leads with 38%, followed by Huntsman at 19%, and Paul at 13%.
Details from the survey of 600 likely Republican primary voters conducted September 16-21 can be found here.

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September 21, 2011

Obama Job Approval Ratings
9/20/11	Approve	Disapprove	Undecided
Overall	41%	56%	3%
Economy	37%	60%	3%

A total of 41% of Americans say they approve of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president and 56% say they disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job. In August, 41% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing and 53% disapproved. When it comes to Obama's handling of the economy, 37% of Americans approve and 60% disapprove. In August, 40% approved and 55% disapproved of Obama's handling of the economy.
Among Americans registered to vote, 40% approve of the way Obama is handling his job as president and 57% disapprove. On Obama's handling of the economy, 36% of registered voters approve and 60% disapprove.
Details from the nationwide survey conducted September 17-20 are available at The National Economy.

Zogby Poll: Herman Cain 20 Point Lead Over Gov. Romney

Alex Levinson - In news sure to inject shock and awe into the Republican political primary season, a Zogby poll released Thursday showed Herman Cain leading the Republican field, topping former front-runner Mitt Romney by an astonishing 20 points. Cain would also narrowly edge out Obama in a general election, the poll found, by a 46�“44 margin.

Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, would lose by a point to the president, 40 percent to 41 percent. Texas governor Rick Perry, who has slipped in the polls of late, would lose to the president 45 percent to 40 percent.

The poll found that 38 percent of Republican primary voters said they would vote for Cain if the primary were held today. Eighteen percent said they would throw their support to Romney, while 12 percent each said they would vote for Perry and Texas congressman Ron Paul. No other candidate attracted double-digit support.

This is the second month in a row in which Zogby has found Cain leading the pack; he has surged another 10 points ahead of his competitors since September. Romney, on the other hand, has remained in the same place, while Perry’s share of the primary vote in the Zogby poll has steadily declined since he announced his candidacy in August.

Other pollsters have found Cain at or near the top of the field, with Fox News declaring him a top-tier candidate following its poll last week. That poll found Cain had 17 percent of the vote, trailing Perry by just two points and Romney by five.

A CBS News poll released Tuesday found Romney and Cain tied at 17 percent, with Perry trailing at 12 percent; a YouGov/Economist poll released Thursday found Cain leading with 21 percent, four points ahead of Romney.

Though many have questioned Cain’s viability as a legitimate candidate, voters are clearly giving him another look.

The IBOPE Zogby International poll is based on an online October 3�“5 survey of 1,581 voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points. The sample of likely Republican primary voters included 796 Americans, and has an margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Fitch: Italy And Spain Credit Rating Downgraded

Developing: Fitch on Friday cut Italy's sovereign credit rating by one notch to A+ from AA-, saying the move reflected the worsening of the euro zone's debt crisis and an erosion of market confidence caused by the government's initially hesitant response to the rise in its bond yields.

Fitch, the third ratings agency to downgrade Italy in recent weeks following similar moves by Standard & Poor's and Moody's, maintained a negative outlook on its rating, citing a risk of fiscal slippage and a possible further intensification of the crisis in the euro zone as a whole.

(Reporting By Gavin Jones)

Fitch on Friday cut Spain's credit ratings by two notches, just a few minutes after downgrading Italy, saying the intensification of the euro zone debt crisis has had a negative impact in the entire region.

The ratings agency cut Spain's credit ratings to AA-minus from AA-plus. It kept a negative outlook on the new rating, in a sign more downgrades are possible in the next couple of years.
Risks to the fiscal consolidation of Spain have risen as prospects for the country's economic growth declined, Fitch said in a statement.

CBS Poll Shows 69% Believe Obama Has Not Helped The Economy

Ed Morrissey - The latest CBS poll more or less corroborates other media polls on Barack Obama’s performance on the economy, and overall as well.  Over two-thirds of Americans agree with Obama’s admission yesterday that they are worse off (or at least no better off) after almost three years with Obama at the helm:

Sixty-nine percent say the president has not made real progress on the economy, which voters overwhelmingly cite as their most important issue. Twenty-five percent say he has made real progress.

Perceptions are not improving. The percentage who said Mr. Obama has made real progress has dropped 10 points from a survey 13 months ago, when 35 percent said he had made real progress.

Just 35 percent of Americans approve of Mr. Obama’s handling of the economy, and his approval rating on the issue has been below 40 percent since February. Fifty-three percent approve of his handling of the economy.

More bad news for Obama: Less than one in four now blame George W. Bush for today’s economic conditions (22%), although blame-Bush still gets a narrow plurality.  Wall Street and Congress fall into a virtual tie (16/15, respectively) while Obama gets 12% of the sole blame, and 10% blame “all of the above.”  If Obama wants to run again on a blame-Bush platform, it’s not going to have much resonance.  Obama’s job performance only gets a wan 44/44, not his lowest rating in the series, but not much above that point, either.

Respondents are now more likely to express disappointment in Obama, too, although not quite a majority.  Forty-three percent say he’s failed to meet their expectations as President, and only 9% say he’s exceeded expectations.  What’s fascinating is that Obama doesn’t do much better with Democrats, where 43% say he’s accomplished about what they expected and 39% say less.  Only 15% say he’s exceeded their expectations.  If Obama wants to launch a base-turnout strategy for 2012, that’s a pretty narrow base to leverage. He actually does slightly better among independents, with 48% saying he met expectations and 41% disappointed.

As always, the sample in the CBS poll gets tweaked to Republican disadvantage, but not as egregiously as usual.  The original sample had a D/R/I of 34/26/40, but CBS weighted it to 31/24/45 — which oversamples indies and significantly undersamples Republicans.  It doesn’t do much to hide the fact that Obama is failing to gain traction with his new hard-Left populist rhetoric, or distracting from his failure on the economy.

WaPo/ABC Poll: Herman Cain On The Rise

Ed Morrissey - The question from last week’s sudden shift in momentum towards Herman Cain in the GOP presidential primary race was whether Cain could actually vie for the nomination.  After today’s poll from the Washington Post and ABC, the question may be whether anyone but Mitt Romney could stop him.  Right now, it certainly doesn’t like Rick Perry could, whose fortunes have fallen faster than they rose after two bad debates:

After a quick rise in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has experienced an almost equally dramatic decline, losing about half of his support over the past month, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Perry’s slide, which comes after several uneven performances in candidate debates, has allowed former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney to resurface atop the GOP field. But the most direct beneficiary of the disenchantment with Perry is businessman Herman Cain, who is now tied for second place.

You know who this, er, doesn’t help?  Oddly enough, Sarah Palin and Chris Christie:

Christie is feverishly assessing whether to do so, with a decision expected this week. But the Post-ABC poll finds only modest public support for a Christie candidacy. About 42 percent of Republicans and GOP-leaning independents say they would like to see the New Jersey governor join the race.Thirty-four percent, say no, with the rest offering no opinion.

That finding is far more positive than the receptivity to a candidacy by Sarah Palin. Two-thirds of Republicans say they do not want the former Alaska governor to seek the party’s nomination.

There is plenty more to this poll in the GOP race, but let’s shift to Barack Obama for a moment.  The buzz over Cain’s sudden momentum will obscure the fact that Obama gets the lowest job-approval rating in the WaPo/ABC series at 42/54, which is also the highest disapproval of the series.  A month ago Obama was at 43/53, and he launched his new hard-Left populist strategy, along with a jobs bill and a deficit-reduction proposal.  Both seem to have flopped — even with a sample tilted toward Democrats at 32/25/37.

Oddly, Obama falls into virtual ties with Romney, Perry, and Christie among registered voters, but an overwhelming majority expects Obama to lose next year, 55/37. Among registered voters, 46% say they will definitely not vote for Obama next year, while only 23% say they definitely will — a slight improvement over August’s results.  Also, for all of the media talk about the collapse in polling for the Tea Party, the WaPo/ABC poll shows support at 42/47, not terribly different from its track all year long, and slightly better than April’s 42/49.

Back to the horse race.  The rankings don’t change when narrowing the respondents to registered voters, with Romney leading, Cain and Perry tied for second, and Christie in fourth place to close out those in double digits.  Palin and Ron Paul are tied among general-population respondents, followed by Newt Gingrich and then Michele Bachmann, with Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman at 1% each — which might put both out of the next debate.  The order doesn’t change at all with Palin out of the mix, or with Christie out of the mix, either.

The big news here is Herman Cain, especially among those to whom he is news.  He easily gets the best score among the contestants on the question “the more you hear about X, do you like him/her more or less?”  Cain gets at 47/12 on that question, while Romney gets a 38/35 and Perry gets a red-flag 30/44.  Christie comes close to Cain in this category at 43/23, but Palin’s closer to Perry at 35/49.

Cain appears to have caught fire, but as we saw with Perry, all that means is that the scrutiny of the media — and the other candidates — will now turn to Cain.  We’ll see how well he handles the heat, but another good debate performance might push him into the leading Not-Romney slot in the race.